National Living Wage 2027 Forecast: What £13.18 Means

Quick answer: The Low Pay Commission's April 2026 national living wage 2027 forecast puts the National Living Wage at £13.18 an hour from 1 April 2027, a 3.7% rise on today's £12.71. Its indicative range runs from £13.02 to £13.34. The Commission will advise ministers by the end of October 2026, so the final rate could differ.

Key takeaways

The Low Pay Commission (LPC) estimates that a National Living Wage of £13.18 an hour would be needed in April 2027 to keep it at two-thirds of median hourly earnings.
The indicative range is £13.02 to £13.34, which would be a rise of between 2.4% and 5.0% on the current £12.71 rate.
The government has asked the LPC to send its recommendations by the end of October 2026, and the Autumn Budget is set for Wednesday 28 October 2026.
The LPC has full flexibility over how quickly the 18 to 20 rate, currently £10.85, is brought up to the adult rate, with priority given to young people's job prospects.
The new rates are due to take effect on 1 April 2027, and the LPC sought evidence from all parts of the UK.

Last updated: 3 October 2026

If you earn at or near the legal minimum, the national living wage 2027 forecast is the number to watch this autumn. The independent Low Pay Commission (LPC) has put its central estimate at £13.18 an hour for workers aged 21 and over from 1 April 2027. That is not yet a confirmed rate. It is a working projection the Commission published in April 2026 while it gathered evidence, and its formal advice to ministers is due within weeks.

Below we set out what the estimate is based on, what it could mean for your weekly and yearly pay, what is happening to the youth rates, and the dates to keep in mind.

What is the National Living Wage 2027 forecast?

The LPC's central estimate is £13.18 an hour from April 2027, a 3.7% increase on the current rate of £12.71. The Commission gives a wider band of £13.02 to £13.34 because earnings forecasts can shift.

The estimate appeared in the LPC's consultation letter dated 1 April 2026, the same day the current rates came in. The Commission described the projection as indicative only and said the final recommendation would also weigh the economy, the labour market and living costs. In its letter it noted that uncertainty was "even more apparent than usual" because of the conflict in the Middle East.

Bottom of LPC range: Hourly rate: £13.02; Rise on £12.71: 2.4%
LPC central estimate: Hourly rate: £13.18; Rise on £12.71: 3.7%
Top of LPC range: Hourly rate: £13.34; Rise on £12.71: 5.0%

How is the forecast worked out?

The figure is the hourly rate the LPC thinks would keep the National Living Wage at two-thirds of median hourly earnings. Ministers have told the Commission that this benchmark should remain "the key reference point" for future rates.

The benchmark is not applied mechanically. Under its 2026 remit from the government, the Commission must also consider:

how healthy the jobs market is;
living costs, with inflation projections covering April 2027 to March 2028;
what a higher rate would do to firms and their ability to compete;
the broader economic picture.

Because the national living wage 2027 forecast tracks wage growth, it can move. If pay across the economy rises faster than forecasters expected, the two-thirds figure goes up; if pay growth slows, it comes down. That is why the published range is about 32p wide.

How much would £13.18 an hour be per year?

At £13.18 an hour, a full-time worker on 37.5 hours a week would earn about £25,701 a year before tax, compared with about £24,785 at today's £12.71. These are Jobsiz calculations based on 52 paid weeks, not official figures.

£12.71 (current, from April 2026): Weekly pay (37.5 hours): £476.63; Annual pay (52 weeks): £24,785
£13.02 (low end of range): Weekly pay (37.5 hours): £488.25; Annual pay (52 weeks): £25,389
£13.18 (central estimate): Weekly pay (37.5 hours): £494.25; Annual pay (52 weeks): £25,701
£13.34 (high end of range): Weekly pay (37.5 hours): £500.25; Annual pay (52 weeks): £26,013

Your take-home pay will be lower once Income Tax, National Insurance and any pension contributions come off, and part-time staff should scale these figures to their own hours.

What will happen to the 18 to 20 and apprentice rates?

No forecast has been published for the youth rates, and the pace of change is now openly up for discussion. From 1 April 2026 the 18 to 20 rate rose 8.5% to £10.85, while the 16 to 17 and apprentice rates went up 6.0% to £8.00.

The government still says it wants to merge the 18 to 20 rate with the adult rate. However, its remit gives the LPC full flexibility over the timing, with priority on the employment prospects of younger workers. Incomes Data Research linked that caution to rising youth unemployment.

The LPC has also discussed lowering the National Living Wage age threshold from 21 to 20 from April 2027, according to Personnel Today's report on the Commission's April paper. Doing so would bring more people onto the adult rate, but it would also pull down the median earnings figure used to set it. Nothing has been decided.

21 and over (National Living Wage): Rate from 1 April 2026: £12.71; 2027 position: Central estimate £13.18
18 to 20: Rate from 1 April 2026: £10.85; 2027 position: Not stated; alignment timing is up to the LPC
16 to 17: Rate from 1 April 2026: £8.00; 2027 position: Not stated
Apprentice: Rate from 1 April 2026: £8.00; 2027 position: Not stated

When will the April 2027 rate be confirmed?

The final figure, which will replace the national living wage 2027 forecast, should become clear after the LPC reports at the end of October. The government asked the LPC to give its advice to the Prime Minister and the Business and Trade Secretary by the end of October 2026, and ministers then decide the rates.

26 June 2026: the LPC's public consultation closed.
By the end of October 2026: the LPC sends its recommendations to the government.
28 October 2026: the Chancellor, John Healey, delivers the Autumn Budget, according to the Chartered Institute of Payroll Professionals (CIPP).
1 April 2027: the new National Living Wage and minimum wage rates are due to take effect.

None of the official documents gives an exact date for announcing the new rates, so treat any date you see as unconfirmed until it is official.

What this means for you

For most workers on the legal minimum, a pay rise next April looks likely, but the exact amount is still open. Here is how to use the national living wage 2027 forecast sensibly:

Job seekers: when comparing adverts, a role paying £12.71 now will probably need to pay at least the new 2027 rate from April. Offers that already sit above £13.34 are ahead of every published scenario.
Workers aged 18 to 20: do not assume you will move to the adult rate in 2027. The LPC can slow the timetable.
Apprentices: the £8.00 apprentice rate applies to apprentices under 19 or in the first year of their apprenticeship, so check which group you fall into.
Budgeting: plan around the bottom of the range, £13.02, rather than the top, so a smaller rise does not catch you out.

Common mistakes to avoid

Treating the national living wage 2027 forecast of £13.18 as confirmed. It is an estimate, and the LPC itself warned it could change.
Assuming every adult gets the same rate. The £12.71 figure applies from age 21; younger workers have their own lower minimums.
Ignoring the range. A rise anywhere from 2.4% to 5.0% is consistent with the current forecast, and the final decision could differ from it.

Related reading on Jobsiz: "UK Job Vacancies at 702,000: What Jobseekers Need (2026)", "Right to Work Checks October 2026: New UK Rules" and "Employment Tribunal Time Limits: New 6-Month Rule (UK)".

Frequently asked questions

What will the National Living Wage be in April 2027?

It has not been confirmed yet. The Low Pay Commission's central estimate is £13.18 an hour, with an indicative range of £13.02 to £13.34. Ministers will set the final rate after receiving the Commission's advice, due by the end of October 2026.

Is the National Living Wage 2027 forecast guaranteed?

No. The Low Pay Commission describes its projections as indicative only. The final recommendation will also reflect the economy, the labour market and the cost of living, so the final rate could differ from these figures.

How much is £13.18 an hour per year?

About £25,701 a year before tax for someone working 37.5 hours a week for 52 weeks. That is roughly £916 more than the same hours at today's £12.71. Your take-home pay will be lower after tax and National Insurance.

What is the National Living Wage now?

Since 1 April 2026 it has been £12.71 an hour for workers aged 21 and over. The 18 to 20 rate is £10.85, and the 16 to 17 and apprentice rates are both £8.00.

Will 18 to 20 year olds get the full National Living Wage in 2027?

That is not confirmed. The government remains committed to aligning the 18 to 20 rate with the adult rate, but it has given the Low Pay Commission full flexibility over the timing, with priority on young people's job prospects.

When is the new minimum wage announced?

The Low Pay Commission must advise the government by the end of October 2026, and the Autumn Budget is on 28 October 2026. None of the official documents gives an exact date for announcing the April 2027 rates.

Sources

This article was compiled by Jobsiz from the sources listed above, with AI-assisted writing and automated fact-checking. Published 3 October 2026. We update stories when new verified information becomes available.

National Living Wage 2027 Forecast: £13.18 Estimate Explained