Botswana Unemployment to Average 24.4% Through 2027: BMI
Quick answer: Research firm BMI forecasts Botswana's unemployment rate will average 24.4% in both 2026 and 2027, barely below an estimated 24.5% in 2025 and well above the 21.6% pre-pandemic average. Weak growth and diamond-sector troubles are expected to keep hiring slow, while higher prices and tighter credit squeeze household budgets.
Key Takeaways
BMI projects unemployment averaging 24.4% in 2026 and again in 2027, against a 2015–2019 average of 21.6%.
Household spending is forecast to fall 1.0%, from P132.5 billion in 2025 to P131.2 billion in 2026.
The Bank of Botswana says job creation keeps trailing labour-force growth and expects limited absorption of new entrants.
Youth unemployment was 28.9% in the 2024/25 Multi-Topic Household Survey, up from 25.1% in 2015/16.
Public administration accounts for 30.3% of formal-sector jobs, while fiscal rigidities could constrain future public hiring.
Botswana's jobs market is unlikely to turn around soon. Global research firm Business Monitor International (BMI) expects the national unemployment rate to average 24.4% in 2026 and stay at 24.4% in 2027, according to its Botswana 2026 Consumer Outlook. That is only a fraction below the 24.5% BMI estimates for 2025, and clearly higher than the 21.6% average Botswana recorded between 2015 and 2019, before the pandemic.
The forecast, reported by the Sunday Standard and Weekend Post, lands alongside a sober labour-market assessment from the Bank of Botswana (BoB). Taken together, they point to a period in which fewer new jobs are created than there are people looking for work.
Why is unemployment in Botswana expected to stay high?
The outlook comes amid slow economic growth, volatility in the diamond sector and rising living costs, the Sunday Standard reports. BMI puts real GDP growth at a modest 1.7% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027, citing global headwinds in the diamond industry and geopolitical tension tied to the US-Iran conflict.
In its own words, BMI warns that "a weak economic backdrop and structurally high unemployment will weigh heavily on consumer spending."
The Bank of Botswana's August 2026 Monetary Policy Report, covered by The Gazette, makes a similar point from a different angle. It describes structural rigidities, weak labour absorption and low productivity growth as continuing drags on job creation. The diamond slowdown, the central bank notes, has spilled over into mining-related industries and downstream services.
Job growth has not kept up with the labour force
The central bank's longer-term numbers show the scale of the gap. From Q3 2019 to Q1 2024, Botswana's labour force grew 10.7% to 1,041,204 people, while employment rose only 1.2%. Average GDP growth over that stretch was 2.7%. Over the same period, the overall unemployment rate rose 6.9 percentage points, from 20.7% to 27.6%.
What do the official surveys show?
Different surveys measure unemployment in different ways, which is why the figures do not all match. Preliminary results from Statistics Botswana's 2024/25 Multi-Topic Household Survey, carried out from November 2024 to November 2025, put unemployment at 21%. That is 3.4 percentage points higher than the 17.6% found in the comparable 2015/16 survey.
Youth unemployment: 28.9% in 2024/25, up from 25.1% in 2015/16.
Quarterly survey trend: overall unemployment rose from 25.9% in Q3 2023 to 27.6% in Q1 2024, while youth unemployment went from 34.4% to 38.2%.
Formal employment: grew 2.9% to 504,738 jobs, which the BoB says was not enough to ease wider labour-market pressure.
Because the economy contracted in 2024 and 2025, the Bank of Botswana says labour-market conditions are likely to have worsened further during 2025.
Where are the jobs in Botswana's formal sector?
Government remains the single biggest employer. Public administration accounts for 30.3% of all formal-sector jobs, followed by education at 13.2% and wholesale and retail trade, including motor vehicle repair, at 12.6%.
That reliance on the state is part of the problem. Wages and salaries for public employees, known as personal emoluments, take up about half of recurrent government spending and roughly 13% of GDP, which the BoB sees as a fiscal rigidity that could limit future hiring. Weekend Post's report on the BMI outlook likewise cites limited public-sector job creation and stagnant wage growth among the pressures on household budgets.
How will prices and interest rates affect households?
Unemployment is only one part of the squeeze. BMI expects total household spending to fall 1.0%, from P132.5 billion in 2025 to P131.2 billion in 2026, a drop of about P1.3 billion, before a modest 1.3% recovery in 2027.
Inflation: headline inflation eased from 10.7% in June 2026 to 9.4% in July, but core inflation rose from 5.8% to 6.3% over the same months. BMI forecasts inflation climbing to 7.6% in 2026, up from 2.6% in 2025, driven by fuel and food import costs.
Interest rates: BMI anticipates a 100 basis-point increase in the Bank of Botswana policy rate over 2026, taking it to 6.5%, which would make new loans dearer and raise costs for households already in debt.
Mining-linked households: middle-income households linked to mining and related industries are feeling the diamond downturn directly.
The government is trying to broaden the economy through tourism, financial services and manufacturing, but BMI cautions that these efforts will take time to show up in household incomes.
What happens next?
Looking ahead, the Bank of Botswana expects weak domestic demand, soft private-sector profits and continued diamond uncertainty to hold back hiring. Its report says "the absorption of new entrants into the labour force is expected to remain limited." The central bank argues that turning this around requires private sector-led growth, faster economic diversification and a more efficient labour market.
Key signals to watch include the next Statistics Botswana labour-force releases, Bank of Botswana policy rate decisions and any recovery in diamond demand.
What this means for you
For job seekers, a forecast like this means competition for each vacancy is likely to stay intense, especially for young people and new graduates. A few practical steps can help:
Look beyond government: with public hiring constrained, widen your search to private employers in sectors the country is trying to grow, such as tourism, financial services and manufacturing.
Build skills employers pay for: short courses, certifications and practical experience can set your CV apart when many applicants have similar qualifications.
Protect your budget: if rates rise as BMI expects, borrowing will cost more. Be cautious about taking on new debt and prioritise essentials.
Stay alert to openings: check trusted job boards regularly and apply early, before closing dates.
If you already have a job, especially in mining-linked businesses, it is a sensible time to build savings and keep your CV current.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Botswana's unemployment rate forecast for 2026?
BMI forecasts that Botswana's unemployment rate will average 24.4% in 2026 and remain at 24.4% in 2027, slightly below its 24.5% estimate for 2025.
Why do Botswana unemployment figures differ between reports?
Different surveys use different methods and periods. The 2024/25 Multi-Topic Household Survey put unemployment at 21%, while quarterly survey data showed 27.6% in Q1 2024 and BMI projects 24.4% for 2026.
What is youth unemployment in Botswana?
Youth unemployment was 28.9% in the 2024/25 Multi-Topic Household Survey, up from 25.1% in 2015/16. Quarterly data showed youth unemployment at 38.2% in Q1 2024.
Who is the biggest employer in Botswana?
Public administration is the largest source of formal jobs, making up 30.3% of formal-sector employment, followed by education at 13.2% and wholesale and retail trade at 12.6%.
Will interest rates rise in Botswana in 2026?
BMI anticipates a 100 basis-point increase in the Bank of Botswana policy rate over 2026, which would take it to 6.5%. The central bank sets the rate, so the final decision rests with it.
Sources
Sunday Standard – Jobs drought deepens as household spending heads for contraction
Weekend Post – Botswana consumer spending set to decline by P1.3 billion in 2026
This article was compiled by Jobsiz from the sources listed above, with AI-assisted writing and automated fact-checking. Published October 1, 2026. We update stories when new verified information becomes available.